Nuclear diplomacy

Relevance

The importance of nuclear diplomacy cannot be overstated; it is quite simply about the survival of humanity. The sheer destructive power of a single nuclear weapon, capable of destroying a city and killing millions, makes its management a critical global priority.

Beyond the immediate human cost, a nuclear exchange would have devastating long-term environmental and economic consequences, rendering parts of the planet uninhabitable. In a world of resurgent great-power competition, nuclear diplomacy serves as essential guardrails to prevent escalation and maintain strategic stability. It is the primary tool we have to reduce the existential threat posed by the continued existence of these weapons.

Methods and approaches

Nuclear diplomacy is conducted through various channels.

Bilateral negotiations between nuclear powers have been a cornerstone of arms control.

Multilateral treaties are also crucial, as they create global norms and legal frameworks, such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). International organisations, particularly the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), play a major role in verification and monitoring, ensuring that states adhere to their commitments.

Finally, informal ‘Track II’ dialogues, involving scientists and former officials, often lay the groundwork for official agreements.

History

The dawn of the nuclear age on 6 August 1945, with the bombing of Hiroshima, immediately gave birth to nuclear diplomacy. The initial phase was characterised by secrecy and a frantic arms race.

A major turning point was the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, a terrifying brush with nuclear war that underscored the urgent need for communication and arms control. This led to the establishment of the Moscow-Washington hotline and the signing of the Limited Test Ban Treaty in 1963.

The end of the Cold War marked another significant shift, leading to substantial reductions in nuclear arsenals. However, the 21st century has seen new challenges with the emergence of new nuclear powers and the erosion of some Cold War-era treaties.

Geographical scope

Nuclear diplomacy unfolds in various arenas.

Bilateral summits between the leaders of nuclear-armed states are often the venues for landmark agreements.

Multilateral forums, such as the United Nations Security Council and the UN General Assembly’s First Committee on Disarmament and International Security, are where global norms are debated and established.

The headquarters of the IAEA in Vienna is a central hub for technical negotiations and verification efforts. Regional partnerships also play a significant role, with the establishment of nuclear-weapon-free zones in regions such as Latin America and Africa.

Actors

The primary actors in nuclear diplomacy are national governments, particularly the recognised nuclear-weapon states: the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom. However, other states with nuclear weapons, including India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea, are also significant players.

International organisations, most notably the IAEA and the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA), provide the institutional framework for non-proliferation and disarmament efforts.

Non-governmental organisations (NGOs), such as the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), play a crucial advocacy role, mobilising public opinion and pushing governments towards disarmament.

The scientific community also has a long history of involvement, from the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs to providing technical expertise on arms control verification.

Examples

• Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT I): A foundational example of bilateral diplomacy, these 1970s negotiations between the U.S. and the Soviet Union produced the first agreements to place limits on the numbers of their most powerful ballistic missiles. It demonstrated that even in the intense ideological struggle of the Cold War, rivals could find common ground to manage the nuclear threat.

• Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): Also known as the Iran nuclear deal, this 2015 multilateral agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the UK, the US, and Germany) is a landmark case of diplomacy aimed at preventing nuclear proliferation. It placed strict, verified limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Though its future is uncertain following the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, talks to revive the deal have continued, highlighting the persistent belief in a diplomatic solution.

• New START Treaty: In February 2021, the United States and Russia agreed to extend the New START Treaty for five years. This recent act of diplomacy preserved the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the world’s two largest nuclear powers. The treaty limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and bombs. It provides for critical verification and transparency measures, ensuring a degree of predictability and stability even during periods of high tension.

• Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW): This treaty, which entered into force in January 2021, represents a more recent, grassroots approach to nuclear diplomacy. Championed by a coalition of non-nuclear-weapon states and NGOs (notably ICAN), it is the first legally binding international agreement to prohibit nuclear weapons comprehensively. While the nuclear-armed states have not joined, the TPNW is a powerful example of normative diplomacy, aiming to stigmatise nuclear weapons and build global pressure for disarmament.